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The terms determined by the central banks for these transactions affect interest rate-setting and credit flows in the economy. My focus is on what is good for Sweden. La vida es buena. New experiences and research suggest that there are a few things that we should perhaps modify in order for it all to work even better. Where we draw the line regarding the type of institution that can obtain ELA and what conditions should hence apply are obviously questions that central banks now face. Los spammers Aviso, si usted spam foros de la FPA s o comentarios, nos reservamos el derecho de editar su mensaje en modo alguno nos plazca para burlarse de ti. Forex school south africa forex school south africa forex school south africa forex school south africa.

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Esto refleja los valores fuertes que nos comunicamos a nuestros clientes a entender sus necesidades de sus expectativas Infraestructura: La consistencia en nuestro enfoque, en el trato con los clientes individuales, es lo que entregamos. Escribir comentarios para Poundwize Forex Pvt. Estaban revolucionando la forma de divisas en Bangalore se compra y se vende. Con nosotros usted puede: Their assets, on the other hand, often comprises lending of a more long-term nature. This mismatch in maturity and liquidity between debts and assets is typical for traditional banking operations and does not constitute a major problem as long as confidence is maintained in the banks' debt-servicing ability.

But if doubts arise, depositors may quickly try to withdraw their money - money that the bank cannot obtain in the short run. This causes a liquidity problem. This type of inherent risk is the reason why there are special rules for banks, supervision and, for example, a deposit guarantee protecting depositors against losses.

Furthermore, a central bank can mitigate the effects of such a crisis by ensuring that there is money available when no one else wants to lend. This function as lender of last resort is based on the central bank's unique ability to create unlimited amounts of liquid funds in its own currency. The ability of central banks to act as lender of last resort has had major significance in many financial crises, and was particularly important during the financial crisis of This crisis led to a number of financial institutions encountering difficulties which ultimately caused the global financial markets to stop functioning.

The shortage of liquid funds and credit threatened the entire global economy. Central banks around the world were forced to take extensive measures to handle the situation.

These measures included loans in various currencies and the purchase of large volumes of government securities, as well as other assets. Several of them were also used during the subsequent sovereign debt crisis in the euro area. Sweden was also affected and the Riksbank decided to provide liquidity to Swedish institutions. In my opinion, the measures have overall been necessary due to the extraordinary circumstances.

They have, however, created major challenges which central banks must now come to grips with. Society's safety net, in the form of measures such as giving banks ELA, means that we can counteract the risk of problems in one bank developing into a widespread systemic crisis.

The Lender of last resort function could therefore be seen as a form of insurance. But just like all other types of insurance, this one can also have a negative impact on the beneficiaries' risk behaviour if there isn't a sufficient level of excess in the system.

There has been an obvious risk of the expansion of the safety net that occurred during the crisis leading to greater risk-taking and thereby increasing the probability of the safety net needing to be used in the future. To counteract this, it has been necessary to increase both the excess and resilience in the financial system. As a result, a new crisis management framework has been introduced, the aim of which is to force the banks' shareowners and creditors - excluding, I would clearly like to point out, those depositors protected by the deposit guarantee - to take a greater responsibility for losses in the event of a default.

Furthermore, the requirements regarding the banks' capital and liquidity buffers have been tightened. In my opinion, these requirements can be even clearer and adapted to the conditions prevailing in the specific banking system. Bearing in mind the dependence of Swedish banks on funding on international capital markets and extensive foreign operations, the requirements regarding banks' liquidity buffers - sometimes referred to as Liquidity Coverage Ratios - or LCRs - should be expressed in relevant currencies, including Swedish kronor.

Traditionally, systemic risks have been primarily associated with large banks. But developments in the financial sector have made it more difficult to assess where the systemic risks are. This is due to structural changes as a result of both new regulations and financial innovations. In both the Swedish s crisis and the global financial crisis, a grey credit market and a shadow banking sector emerged that evaded the supervision of the authorities and to an extent took over the activities of traditional banks.

The risks that were built up in the unregulated sector formed the basis of the system-wide crises that subsequently broke out.

Central banks may also from time to time review their guidelines and arrangements for liquidity assistance so that they are sufficiently flexible in order to meet new requirements. There may, for example, be reason to consider the forms in which types of companies other than banks might also be eligible for liquidity support.

One such type of player is so-called central counterparties. A central counterparty CCP acts as a counterparty to the buyer and seller in a security transaction, thereby assuming all counterparty risk.

In order to reduce systemic risks globally, authorities around the world have encouraged the use of central counterparties in transactions with standardised OTC derivatives - such as interest rate swaps. The idea is that this will increase resilience in the financial system in the event of a bank failing. Now that central counterparties are increasingly used, it also means that some of the risk individual banks previously had in relation to each other is instead concentrated to central counterparties, which makes these players extremely systemically important.

We are therefore now faced with the question of whether they should also be given the opportunity to borrow money from the central bank to a greater extent than currently is the case. ELA from central banks may therefore come into question for a more complex set of players in the future. Where we draw the line regarding the type of institution that can obtain ELA and what conditions should hence apply are obviously questions that central banks now face.

If, for example, central banks are in practice willing to give loans to institutions that are not covered by the previously mentioned regulations, do we not then encourage the emergence of new types of shadow banks and new risks?

Widespread globalisation also means that many banks have substantial exposures in foreign currencies, currencies which the national central bank cannot create itself.

When liquidity on the dollar markets slowed towards the end of , swap agreements were established between the Federal Reserve and other central banks, including the Riksbank. Conversely, swap agreements were also established between the Riksbank and two of the Baltic central banks. These experiences indicate that, in the future, even tougher requirements will be placed on international cooperation between central banks.

How should we organise this in the best way? Can we expect other countries' central banks to always be able to assist with currency in a crisis situation or must special agreements be drawn up? The development also raises the issue of whether an international 'lender of last resort' is needed.

And they will become even more relevant if the major Swedish bank Nordea carries out its plan to change from a subsidiary to a branch structure. With the current subsidiary structure, the central banks in the countries where Nordea has subsidiaries are responsible for providing ELA to them.

After the transformation into a branch structure, the Riksbank will take on the main responsibility for providing ELA, should it be needed.

This means that the Riksbank will have a greater need of being able to obtain foreign currency in a crisis situation. Even if swap agreements can be concluded proactively, which is not at all certain, there are no guarantees that they can automatically be used in the event of a crisis or when we consider it necessary to do so.

It is the creditor who decides whether it wishes to lend in each specific situation. The measures and phenomena I have now spoken of have led to banks always turning to the central bank in difficult times. Regardless of where the supervision is formally located, central banks therefore exercise some de facto supervision of banks. Everyone knows that "the central bank is where the money is" and that it is not willing to lend it to just anyone. For us at the Riksbank to be able to fulfil our role as liquidity provider, we must have good access to information on financial institutions and markets.

The fact that the banks have been subject to regular analysis by the Riksbank - both before and after the deregulation of the financial markets in the s - is a natural consequence of their central role in the payment system and the special systemic risks with which their operations are associated.

The need for analysis changes over time, however, and developments on the financial markets mean that the central banks' analyses must now cover more than just banks. It is a question of analysing central counterparties, insurance companies, shadow banks, asset prices, risk premiums, different markets or different phenomena market liquidity risk, high-frequency trading, block chain technology, etc.

It is important that central banks continuously "scan" the financial market and keep track of risks and vulnerabilities in different places, all the time focusing on the system risk perspective. To ensure this, it is vital that we can independently request all the information we consider necessary to be able to perform our analyses. Not least the ability to provide ELA in an effective manner - and simultaneously limit the risks to the state, by only giving assistance to institutions that have liquidity problems but otherwise are healthy - requires good access to information.

It is the Riksbank's and ultimately the state's funds that are at stake here and it can be a question of very large amounts. The Riksbank's task of promoting financial stability, not least via its responsibility for the RIX payment system and our role as lender of last resort, requires analysis of risks and vulnerabilities in the financial system.

This also provides us with the right conditions to be able to identify feasible measures in order to manage the risks. The Riksbank shares the responsibility for preventing financial crises with the Government and other authorities, in particular Finansinspektionen and the Swedish National Debt Office. The Riksbank's responsibility in this area is expressed in the legislation as the task of "promoting a safe and efficient payments system".

More specific details are not given. Goodfriend and King discussed this issue in their evaluation of the Riksbank that was presented at the beginning of this year. I agree and welcome a discussion on how the responsibility should be formulated. An important question is what formal role the Riksbank should have as regards preventive work aimed at reducing risks and vulnerabilities in the financial system, including within the policy area of macroprudential policy, which focuses on preventing and mitigating systemic risks.

Identifying systemic risks is nothing new in the world of central banking. What is new is the emergence of macroprudential policy as a policy area. This means that, in addition to the task of identifying systemic risks, clear mandates must also be defined for those who are to be responsible for macroprudential policy.

In addition, a tool-box of different measures that can be taken to reduce systemic risks must also be developed. Neither are many of the tools and measures currently being discussed entirely new, but were already in central bank arsenals prior to the major wave of deregulations during the s. In Sweden, Finansinspektionen has been given the main responsibility for macroprudential policy. In addition, there is a financial stability council - consisting of representatives of the Government, Finansinspektionen, the National Debt Office and the Riksbank - which is a forum for the discussion of financial stability issues.

I believe that there are significant flaws in several aspects of the Swedish framework for macroprudential policy. Firstly, experiences so far of the Swedish framework indicate clear inadequacies in decision-making power. An obvious example is the protracted discussions on the introduction of a binding amortisation requirement.

An important cause of the problem is that the macroprudential policy objective is unclear and too narrow. For example, it should be made clear that macroprudential policy instruments may be used not just to manage risks to financial stability, but also to reduce risks created by the financial sector in the real economy. It must also be clear that macroprudential policy includes the entire financial system and not just the credit market. A clarified and broadened objective is also appropriate in order to bring Sweden's framework in line with European standards.

Improvements are urgently needed here so that we can tackle risks in good time and such procedures have also been recommended by the EU's macroprudential policy body, the European Systemic Risk Board ESRB.

Secondly, the Swedish structure falls short also when it comes to clarity in the division of responsibilities. Via its instruction, Finansinspektionen was given the responsibility to "take measures to counteract financial imbalances with the aim of stabilising the credit market". No definition of what Finansinspektionen's overall macroprudential policy task comprises has been formulated, however. This problem is highlighted by the decision process for the upcoming amortisation requirement.

The Government has indeed tasked Finansinspektionen to produce regulations that more closely define the amortisation requirement but at the same time requires these regulations to be approved by the Government before Finansinspektionen adopts them. This is not in line with the ESRB's recommendation that the macroprudential authority should as a minimum be operationally independent from political bodies.

This is, if anything, a return to the arrangement that often prevailed prior to the deregulations of the s. A third problem with the Swedish macroprudential policy framework is that it has not been established by law. Finansinspektionen's mandate in the macroprudential policy area is only a government ordinance and the Stability Council is formally only a committee. This is unfortunate as macroprudential policy is an important policy area and it is vital that a long-term, sustainable structure is created for it, so that macroprudential analysis is not given lower priority when other tasks require resources, and experiences from the crisis are forgotten.

The Stability Council has so far played an insignificant role in practice. Sweden thus deviates - in several respects - from European standards as regards how its macroprudential policy framework is designed. We have also organised the responsibility for macroprudential policy differently to most of the other countries in Europe. In 13 EU Member States, the responsibility has been given to the central bank, a similar number have given it to a separate council and two countries Sweden and Finland have given it to the supervisory authority.

The ECB has the responsibility for a so-called "top-up" of some of the macroprudential policy measures decided at national level - i. More generally speaking, it is a problem if Sweden chooses to deviate from international or European standards, as it implies a risk of us losing international influence and of us having problems to implement new regulations in an efficient and consistent way.

And the problem is particularly major given that we have a large banking sector by international comparison.

Through this, the ECB has been given the overall responsibility for supervision in the euro countries and in other EU Member States that apply to and are permitted to take part in the SSM. The ECB's influence will strengthen over time as regards the design of both microprudential supervision and macroprudential policy in Europe.

Even if Sweden were to have only limited influence as an SSM participant, since we are not in the euro area, we would nevertheless gain a better insight into SSM discussions and could make our voice heard. The fact that Sweden has large, cross-border banks is reason enough to believe that we will have to adapt to the SSM rather than the other way around. It is clear therefore that our Swedish framework for macroprudential policy has major flaws in the way its objective has been formulated, the processes for allocating tools, clarity in the division of responsibility and in legal status.

This is problematic as it has contributed to delaying measures that can counteract the high and growing household indebtedness. In their evaluation, Goodfriend and King point out that both the mandate and division of responsibility for macroprudential policy are in need of review. Without going into more detail about their concrete recommendations, I can see that, based on a socioeconomic efficiency perspective, it would be appropriate to utilise the expertise, experience and resources in the macroprudential policy area, possessed by the Riksbank in its capacity as the central bank, in a better way than is currently the case.

There are many different ways of doing this, of which, from both an international and national perspective, the most efficient in the long run would probably be to merge the Riksbank and Finansinspektionen. This would gather our skills and expertise together and strengthen Sweden's voice internationally. This is certainly a far-reaching change, the collective effects of which would most definitely need to be analysed very thoroughly. It is not in line with the current structure, but when the world around us is changing, our central agency structure sometimes also needs to do the same.

In the majority of EU Member States, the central bank and banking supervision are nowadays under the same roof. There are of course other less far-reaching solutions that would be possible if we wanted to improve our Swedish macroprudential policy structure.

Regardless of the solution chosen, each has its specific challenges as regards governance and accountability. But having a well-functioning and effective arrangement for macroprudential policy is extremely important for Sweden. What the best arrangement might be is something I hope the Riksdag will reflect on in conjunction with the planned review of the Sveriges Riksbank Act. The time this will take is certainly beyond my active time. My focus is on what is good for Sweden.

The whole of Sweden's welfare is built on the endeavour to increase productivity. This is clearly true within the private sector and it would be strange if this endeavour did not also lead to some form of structural transformation as regards public sector regulation and oversight of the financial system, especially in light of our large, cross-border banks, technological developments and a world of free capital flows unavoidably posing new risks. As I described, a central bank is "the banks' bank", not just in financial crisis situations but also on a day-to-day basis.

The banks make payments between themselves via the central bank and they can borrow or deposit money there for the short run. The terms determined by the central banks for these transactions affect interest rate-setting and credit flows in the economy. This is what is normally referred to as "monetary policy" and receives considerable media coverage and space in the economic policy debate. Since the monetary policy regime of maintaining a fixed foreign exchange rate was abandoned at the beginning of the s, the Riksbank - similar to many other central banks - has followed a strategy known as "flexible inflation-targeting".

This means that monetary policy is aimed at achieving a quantified inflation target, but this is done in a flexible manner. Deviations from the target are consciously accepted, normally in order to avoid unnecessarily negative effects on output and employment, but it could also be a matter of trying to avoid the build-up of financial imbalances. Flexible inflation targeting can help to maintain financial stability.

At the same time, financial stability is a prerequisite for being able to pursue a meaningful monetary policy, as monetary policy affects the real economy and inflation via the financial system.

Financial instability very much inhibits effective monetary policy. Many would certainly agree that our flexible inflation targeting policy has led to favourable economic growth in Sweden.

It has also in general received a good rating in the evaluations of the Riksbank performed by external experts on behalf of the Riksdag. I am therefore quite convinced that flexible inflation targeting in some form or other will continue to be the best-suited monetary policy framework in the future.

Experience since has, however, led to some parts of the strategy being brought into question. The questions raised are, however, seldom completely new, but in most cases are questions we have been struggling with since the introduction of the inflation target in , even if the most recent financial crisis has put them in a different light to a certain extent.

One issue discussed is the appropriate level of the inflation target and whether the target currently adopted by most inflation-targeting countries, around 2 per cent, should be changed. Some commentators have argued that the Swedish inflation target should be reduced. Another proposal put forward is that the Riksbank, instead of explicitly reducing the inflation target, should allow inflation to continue to undershoot the target for a long period to come.

In both cases, inflation would be lower for an even longer period of time and inflation expectations would probably fall even further.

As a consequence, interest rates in Sweden would remain at today's extremely low levels for even longer to come. The international debate has not concerned itself too much with globalisation and digitalisation having lastingly held back inflation. Instead, it has been argued that central bank inflation targets should be increased. One way of dealing with this is to raise the inflation target. With a higher inflation target, say 3 per cent, the nominal interest rate would be higher, which in turn would create greater scope for stimulating the economy in the event of future recessions and prevent the policy rate's effective lower bound becoming binding.

This is very much an ongoing discussion and it remains to be seen how it will end. The target level is not set in stone but a change should not be made lightly. There may be reason to wait until a reasonable degree of consensus has been reached among central banks and in the research community.

This would probably increase confidence in a change to the target level. This is an example of how the scope for an individual central bank to take action entirely on its own is restricted. I will return to this issue anon. But there are parameters in our framework other than the target level that are perhaps more in need of adjustment.

Ever since the Riksbank introduced inflation targeting, the inflation target has been expressed in terms of the CPI. The reason for choosing the CPI as the target index is not only because it is a broad price index that represents normal purchases, but also because CPI statistics are of good quality, not normally revised and published shortly after the end of the month.

The use of the CPI as the target variable has, however, led to some difficulties and we have therefore analysed other inflation indices as well in our interest rate decisions, more recently the CPIF the CPI with a fixed rate of interest.

It may, however, be difficult to evaluate monetary policy if there are major differences between the development of the variable that guides the Riksbank, more recently the CPIF, and the formal target variable, the CPI. Another problem is that both domestic and overseas forecasters relatively seldom take into account the fact that the Swedish CPI is calculated the way it is when they describe the situation in Sweden. This can lead to misleading international comparisons.

In recent years, for example, eye-catching headlines have appeared at regular intervals in the media saying that Sweden is in deflation, despite this being largely due to the fact that housing costs in the CPI have gone down when the Riksbank has cut the repo rate. This can give the impression that the situation in Sweden is worse and the inflation is much lower than in other countries, despite the difference being because the Swedish CPI is particularly sensitive to changes in the policy rate.

It may therefore be time to open up a discussion on the target variable. An alternative index, which is not affected directly by changes in the policy rate either, is the HICP harmonised index of consumer prices , which is used by, among others, the ECB as the target variable. In terms of the latter index, one advantage is that it is often used in international comparisons of inflation, but the differences compared with the CPIF in terms of actual figures are not particularly major.

Another question is whether the target should be surrounded by some form of interval. This is quite common internationally and previously there was also a so-called tolerance interval of 1 percentage point either side of the Swedish inflation target.

It was introduced at the same time as the inflation target in and its main purpose was to explain that the Riksbank is not able to control inflation precisely in the short run, but that it aims to limit deviations from the target.

However, the interval proved to be far too narrow in relation to how CPI inflation varied in practice. When the interval was abolished in , CPI inflation had more often been outside the tolerance interval than inside it. In the background memorandum published in conjunction with the decision to abolish, the Riksbank argued that the interval had become obsolete since target deviations greater than 1 percentage point had become a natural part of flexible inflation targeting and that the credibility of the inflation target was not questioned even when inflation was outside the tolerance interval.

In retrospect, it is reasonable to ask whether the problem was not just the fact that the interval chosen was poorly adapted. Despite this, the idea as such of an interval around the target does not necessarily have to be a bad one. A better adapted interval may bring with it the advantages envisaged in the first place.

It would signal that monetary policy is being conducted amidst considerable uncertainty and that the Riksbank is unable to fine-tune the economy and inflation.

This is something that is good to remind people of on a more or less continual basis. In the same way as there may be reason to discuss a change of target variable, there may, in light of this, be cause to consider whether a tolerance interval should be reintroduced. I find it difficult, however, to see how an interval could normally change the practical prerequisites for monetary policy very much. The Riksbank has not had any rigid fixation with pinning the inflation target at exactly 2 per cent at all times, but an explicit target is nevertheless necessary as a guide to monetary policy and inflation expectations.

Even with an interval, monetary policy would more often than not aim to reach the mid-point of the interval. But it could make things easier if it takes quite a long time to achieve the target.

And an interval may, as I said before, be a good way of communicating uncertainty about the future and about the effects of monetary policy. A question that has emerged now and again in the Swedish debate is whether it should be written into the law that the Riksbank, in addition to the price stability objective, should also have an objective for growth in the real economy.

Normally, it is an objective for employment that debaters then have in mind. One usually talks of the central bank having a so-called dual mandate, including both inflation and the real economy.

In practice, central banks that conduct flexible inflation targeting act and reason in a very similar way, regardless of whether they have a statutory dual mandate or not when the real target is not explicitly expressed in numerical terms. There is a risk that many of those who advocate a statutory dual mandate imagining that monetary policy would then be conducted in a completely different way to previously, and that it thereby would be able to contribute in some way or other to a lasting increase in employment.

In other words, the Riksbank would not just keep inflation low and stable, but also help to solve the unemployment problem. Today, it is generally accepted that a central bank cannot lastingly increase growth and employment by conducting a systematically expansionary monetary policy.

A risk with a statutory, numerical dual mandate is also that politically uncomfortable reforms, that actually could lastingly increase employment, are not implemented on the grounds that employment is the Riksbank's responsibility. The dual mandate would in this case do more harm than good. The evaluations made of the Riksbank on behalf of the Riksdag have so far argued against the introduction of an explicit, numerical employment target for monetary policy.

At the same time, it has been taken for granted that the policy should be flexible insofar as it, in addition to the inflation target, should also try to stabilise fluctuations in employment. Another issue is whether flexible inflation targeting should also include taking the degree of financial stability into consideration.

I think it is obvious that there are close links between monetary policy and financial stability. The degree of financial stability affects how monetary policy measures spread to inflation and employment the so-called transmission mechanism. At the same time, price stability contributes to a "safe and efficient payment mechanism" and facilitates stability in the financial system in general.

The question discussed is whether the central bank's responsibility for financial stability also means that financial stability should be an objective for monetary policy.

I interpret the literature as there being a great deal to indicate that financial stability should in principle be an objective not only for macroprudential policy but also for monetary policy, although it will be a practical and quantitative question to determine in each given situation how much financial stability should be considered in monetary policy decisions.

But given the strong links between financial stability, price stability and real economic stability, it cannot be ruled out that monetary policy sometimes needs to be used to mitigate financial stability risks. How much depends, among other factors, on how well the price stability objective has been met and on how effective macro- and microprudential policy are when it comes to promoting financial stability. Flexible inflation targeting involves, as I stated earlier, the central bank allowing certain deviations from the target in order to take, for example, output, employment or financial imbalances more into account.

But this flexibility is not just something that is there, one has to accumulate it. A prerequisite for using the policy rate for something other than stabilising inflation is that confidence in the inflation target is firmly rooted and that it works as a nominal anchor in the economy. The higher the confidence in the inflation target, the more consideration the central bank can show for aspects other than inflation - the more flexible monetary policy can be.

Such thoughts lay behind monetary policy in the early s, when we were emerging from twenty or so years of high, fluctuating inflation and confidence in the new low inflation regime needed to be established. In both its communication and policy, the Riksbank prioritised inflation quite clearly before other considerations - it was quite simply necessary to be what Mervyn King referred to as an "inflation nutter" during a period of adaptation.

If, at that time, the Riksbank had acted less resolutely - and there was definitely external pressure to have a more relaxed attitude towards inflation - it would have taken much longer and been considerably more difficult to establish the inflation target as the benchmark for price-setting and wage formation that it has been In recent decades. As I have previously touched upon, a common view both historically and internationally has been to see central banks as relatively independent public institutions.

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